The potential for continued political gridlock looms over Israel as a new poll reveals that neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political bloc nor the main Zionist opposition bloc would secure a parliamentary majority if elections were held today. This scenario could result in complex coalition negotiations or even another election.
According to the survey, Netanyahu’s bloc would capture 51 seats in the 120-member Knesset, while the opposition bloc would slightly lead with 55 seats. With 61 seats needed to form a majority government, both sides fall short, putting smaller parties in a critical position for coalition-building. Two Arab-majority parties, projected to win a combined 14 seats, could become kingmakers in the next government formation.
The poll indicates that Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party would emerge as the largest party with 24 seats. Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad is expected to gain 14 seats, while other parties such as Yisrael Beytenu and the Democrats would secure nine and eight seats, respectively. Within Netanyahu’s bloc, the Likud party is projected to win 22 seats, followed by Shas with 10, United Torah Judaism with nine, Otzma Yehudit with seven, and Religious Zionism with four.
With the possibility of another election deadlock, public opinion remains divided on how to proceed. The poll shows that 31.4% of respondents would prefer another election if no majority is formed, while 29.6% support a unity government and 27% back a minority government. Notably, among Netanyahu supporters, a unity government is favored by 45.02%, whereas those opposed to him lean towards a minority government at 39.79%.
Conducted with 500 respondents, the poll has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points and highlights the ongoing uncertainty over Israel’s political future as the country approaches the October 27 election.